Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 22 Jan 2008 06:00 to Wed 23 Jan 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 22 Jan 2008 00:52
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A large trough and weak cold front are situated at the north side of the Alps at the beginning of the period and France-Germany moves southeast to southern Italy at the end of the period. Unstable airmass... that created a not well forecast thundery episode in Benelux, western Germany around 21Z last night was situated at the warm side of the cold front in strong shear conditions, capable of isolated severe gusts or tornado ...is forecast to be situated over the Alpine region in the early morning.
However, instability is forecast by GFS to almost diminish. May any convection occur, SREH>300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear >15 m/s pose a risk of an isolated tornado. The overal threat seems too marginal for a level 1, though.

Later in the period activity is likely to yield some thunder over the Mediterranean Sea near southern/western Italy.