Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Jan 2008 06:00 to Sun 20 Jan 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Jan 2008 21:05
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Quite strong upper frontal zone remains situated over central Europe, with an imbedded trough overspreading S Scandinavia and NE Europe during the period. Associated -- quite intense -- SFC low will likewise lift northeastwards into the northern Baltic Sea. Intense deep atmospheric frontal zone will persist in its wake over central Europe. New and potentially explosive cyclogenesis may occur along this boundary, though the last model runs are consistent in simulating only a stable wave cyclone to develop W of the British Isles late on Saturday ... reaching NW Germany towards early Sunday morning. This feature should be monitored for possibly intense development, despite the models currently agreeing on it remaining an insignificant/evanescent perturbation. Quasistationary upper low/trough persists over the Ionian and Aegean regions, maintaining a weak cycloic flow regime also at the surface.

DISCUSSION

... North Sea ...

It does not seem that much of a convective threat exists on Saturday. Sporadic lightning could occur with cellular polar-air convection mainly over the N North Sea in the wake of the intense Scandinavian SFC low. However, lightning frequency should remain too insignificant for a thunderstorm area. Also, the convective contribution to severe wind gusts should be fairly low ... and a categorical risk does not seem to be warranted at the moment.

... S British Isles ... Channel ...

The frontal wave affecting the S UK and the Channel region late in the period is worth being monitored. If the perturbation becomes unstable -- unlike currently simulated -- strong forced ascent could result in a threat for mainly linearly organized thunderstorms with some severe threat, mainly for severe wind gusts. However, at the moment it does not seem to be the most likely scenario, so a categorical risk is not necessary at the moment.