Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 14 Jan 2008 06:00 to Tue 15 Jan 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 13 Jan 2008 21:45
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 a logwave ridge stretching from southern Scandinavia into the western Ukraine moves northeastward, followed by a trough initially near -12.5 W.
A weak to moderate westerly flow is present over much of the Mediterranean. An NW-SE elongated trough is located over the Adriatic Sea, with a NW-ly jet streak on its western flank.

DISCUSSION

Adriatic Sea, W Balkans, Aegean Sea, Greece, W Turkey...

The aforementioned jet streak over Italy is expected to move east-southeastward during the forecast period. Convective activity including thundering convection is expected over the Adriatic initially and is expected to move east-southeastward in concert with the jet streak.

W France...

A mid/upper-level trough initially stretching from NW Spain to Ireland moves eastward reaching western France in the afternoon. Ahead of this system deep, moiat convection will be rather active and may locally contain thunder. Highest likelihood appears to be over parts of Bretagne, Poitou and the western Loire Valley. Low instability and moderate shear limit the chance of severe weather.