Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 13 Jan 2008 06:00 to Mon 14 Jan 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Jan 2008 21:57
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Main features this period will be the Mediterranean upper cut-off cyclone, which will slowly translate from Italy into the S Adriatic Sea ... and an Atlantic longwave trough which will have reached W continental Europe by early Monday morning. This feature is maintaining a reasonably intense and large SFC low attached to it, while the SFC low attendant to the Mediterranea upper low will continue its slow weakening trend.

DISCUSSION

... E Atlantic and the coasts of Spain, France, and the UK ...

It does not seem that a substantial severe convective weather threat will exist on Sunday ... in the wake of the cold front trailing from the E Atlantic SFC low, cellular convection is expected. Shear is expected to be rather weak ... except along the coast where friction retards the flow close to the surface. This suggests that a small threat for shallow/brief supercells exists along the NW coast of Spain, the W coast of France, and the SW portions of the UK late Sunday night. However, weak LL lapse rates and weak deep shear suggest that allover severe threat, including the threat for tornadoes is somewhat limited.

Otherwise, kinematic and thermodynamic fields are too weak to support an appreciable threat for severe convective weather.