Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 09 Jan 2008 06:00 to Thu 10 Jan 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Jan 2008 05:06
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Delta of strong Atlantic polar jet stream is situated over western Europe. Rather low geopotential covers the Mediterranean, although a ridge is present over the central parts. Latest ascends show stable air mass due to rather warm mid-level air mass in the range of this ridge over most of the Mediterranean. Low-level air mass is rather cool, but also moist especially over west Mediterranean. Weak forcing is forecast today, and thunderstorms are not expected.

Over north-western Europe, intense low pressure systems have developed that affect the British Isles today. In the morning hours, cold maritime air mass advects into most of the British Isles south of a storm system over northern Scotland. Given strong winds initially, every convective downdraft may be capabale of producing high winds. However, latest ascends do only indicate very weak instability, and favorable forcing is also not forecast during the day. Will not rule out little lightning especially over Ireland, but chance for organized convection seems to be too low for a risk level.