Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 30 Dec 2007 06:00 to Mon 31 Dec 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 29 Dec 2007 17:43
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Features of interest this period will be the weakening upper low covering the N Maghreb States and the south-central Mediterranean Sea, as well as the cut-off cyclone developing over the W Mediterranean on Sunday afternoon/evening. Mainly the NW African feature is maintaining a weak SFC low over the central Mediterranean regions

DISCUSSION

... south-central Mediterranean ...

Off the Greek south coast, DLS in excess of 20 m/s is simulated to exist late in the period ... and although CAPE should remain quite weak, some storms may evolve into multicells, capable of low-end severe wind and hail. Low-level capping will likely remain minimal, and given rather steep low-level lapse rates along with a nearly saturated boundary layer, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

... western Mediterranean ...

Further west, convective mixing should deepen as the upper cut-off low evolves ... eventually resulting in scattered thunderstorms over the western Mediterranean. 0-500 m mean temperature lapse rates are simulated to be in the 15-20 K/km range, suggesting that effective LL vortex stretching may occur once a pre-existing misocyclone is encountered. Allover waterspout threat may be somewhat reduced by moderately strong background flow, however. Also, lapse rates are not extraordinarily strong, and thus a categorical threat for waterspouts does not seem to be warranted at the moment.