Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2007 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 28 Dec 2007 18:19
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Meandering upper westerly flow is stretching from the N Atlantic across N Europe, with an imbedded amplifying trough progressing from the British Isles into central portions of Europe. Associated SFC low pressure complex is covering parts of the N Atlantic, the Nordic Sea, NE Europe, and N Russia. The occluded cold front attendant to the low pressure system accompanying the British upper trough is simulated to extend from S Scandinavia across Germany and France into the Gulf of Biscay on Saturday 12Z, making eastward progress while undergoing substantial weakening. Relatively weak but persistent upper cut-off cyclone over the Maghreb States is maintaining a weak cyclonic circulation and LL warm advection over the southern/central Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... south/central Mediterranean ...

Convection will likely persist over the south-central Mediterranean, but neither CAPE nor shear suggest that severe weather is to be expected. In addition, weak low-level lapse rates render waterspouts unlikely.

... North Sea ...

Sporadic lightning could occur with shallow polar-air convection mainly over the North Sea, but activity should remain too isolated to warrant a thunderstorm area.