Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 10 Dec 2007 06:00 to Tue 11 Dec 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 09 Dec 2007 20:28
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC... most westerly flow is located over the Mediterranean. Further North, a vertically stacked low pressure area over NW Germany is in the process of dissipating. The mid-level low should gradually become part of a large area of low heights on 500 hPa over the Balkans.
This includes a trough stretching from near Serbia to central Turkey, that weakens while slowly moving northeastward.
Within the strong westerly flow over the Mediterranean, a number of weak shortwave troughs move eastward.
Heights are expected to rise rapidly over the British Isles and North Sea while a surface high builds over Scandinavia, forming a strongly-blocked flow pattern.

DISCUSSION

Western Turkey, eastern Aegean Sea region...

Scattered convective storms are expected within an slightly unstable air mass. The presence of rather strong shear and the passage of a multiple subtle vorticity maxima from the west, create a small risk that some convection will become linearly-organized and produce some severe wind gusts. Additionally, small hail is possible.