Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 07 Nov 2007 06:00 to Thu 08 Nov 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 07 Nov 2007 00:19
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

The European weather map reveals a very dynamic weather pattern in - between two strong high pressure areas. One is centered southwest if Ireland and the other one over western Russia.
There are no significant changes compared to yesterday regarding the jet position and expected evolution as very intense upper-level jet is still present on the upstream side of an huge upper-level trough, extending down to northern Africa.
A strong depression is forecast to evolve north of Ireland during the latter part of the forecast period but only the northern parts of Ireland and Scotland should feel the affect until 06Z.
A depression southwest of the Azores will be monitored for any "sub-" tropical development although right now there are no signs. Please also refer to the latest TWO of the 530pm EST bulletin (NHC).

DISCUSSION

...Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland...

The situation is quite similar to yesterday. BL moisture is better but thermodynamics are worse and the limited release of good LL CAPE ( supportive for yesterday's storms ) should suppress any thunderstorm probabilities.
We highlighted an area, where thermodynamics look at least somewhat more favorable for a few electrified storms.

Although LL CAPE is on the increase over the Netherlands, Belgium and NW Germany during the afternoon hours no highlighted area was issued as atmosphere stays too warm and weak ridging downstream of the intense depression north of Ireland should also approach from the NW , limiting convection.

This is a tricky situation as intense winds at lower levels would support level areas as severe wind gusts would be a distinct possibility even under non electrified convection.
We went with no level area, as convection coverage should stay low and no organized line of storms is expected. Anyway each more persistent convective cell could mix down winds, matching our criterion.
Please refer to your local weather offices regarding the overall wind threat !

Like yesterday we would not be surprised to see a few SFLOC reports somewhere over central / eastern Germany and central / southern Poland ( especially where topography supports stronger updrafts ).
In fact an isolated thunderstorm could evolve as far east as the western Ukraine.
Overall we should see less activity than yesterday .