Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 27 Oct 2007 06:00 to Sun 28 Oct 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 26 Oct 2007 17:24
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A well developed branch of the northern hemispheric polar vortex is situated over Greenland and surrounded by an intense polar front jet. Such intense geopotential height gradients are the focus for rapidly deepening surface depressions and such a feature is forecast to develop west - southwest of Ireland, racing northeastwards, reaching Scotland during the later afternoon and early evening hours. The wind field at all levels is very strong with 850hPa winds of 30m/s and more but a stable atmospheric stratification should preclude any significant convective activity with this depression.
This area will be monitored if later model runs indicate a better environment for convective activity along the cold front.
The huge upper-level trough over central and SW Europe finally starts to break open into a closed upper-low over eastern Germany and a still well structured trough over Spain and Portugal. This configuration results in a southwesterly flow over the central Mediterranean, supporting a few locations with isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage.
Eastern Europe continues to feel the influence of stable and dry conditions.

We highlighted a few areas over the Mediterranean, but overall weak shear and low-end to moderate instability release will preclude any severe thunderstorm chances.