Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 23 Oct 2007 06:00 to Wed 24 Oct 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 22 Oct 2007 18:07
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

The main feature of interest is the constantly weakening cyclonic swirl over SE Europe. This place will be the main focus for some enhanced convective activity.
Not much to say for the rest of Europe as strong high pressue continues to dominate the European weather maps.
A small but compact upper-level low pressure area approaches SW Europe from the west / northwest during the night hours.

DISCUSSION

...Extreme NW Turkey ...

Environment is not comparable to the past 48 hours with relaxing kinematic parameters, but is still favorable for a few more organized storms in the level-1 area. The main inhibiting factor for a more robust thunderstorm risk will be the low-end instability release, as mid-level lapse rates stay weak . A moist boundary layer, low LCLs and enhanced LL shear will be present and hence an isolated tornado can't be ruled out but best kinematic and thermodynamic fields stay separated during most of the time. Stronger storms should also be able to produce marginal hail.

During the latter part of the forecast period, conditions for an isolated tornado threat also become better over eastern Romania and Moldova which were included into a level-1.


Otherwise no organized thunderstorms are expected during the forecast period.