Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 08 Sep 2007 06:00 to Sun 09 Sep 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 07 Sep 2007 20:33
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Intense upper trough and attendant SFC low over the Norwegian Sea as of Friday evening will dig southeastwards and merge with the upper low anchored over the Balkan States ... resulting in one deep long-wave trough over eastern Europe by Saturday evening. Accordingly ... polar air masses will affect most of Europe except the very eastern and southern portions, where weak CAPE will likely develop during the day.

DISCUSSION

... Black Sea ... eastern Ukraine ...

It appears that some severe threat will persist over the western Black Sea, slowly shifting northeastwards into the southern Ukraine during the day. CAPE does not appear to be particularly strong, but deep-layer shear of 25 m/s should allow for a few well-organized multicells and supercells, capable mainly of severe wind gusts and large hail. LLS appears to increase over the south Ukraine late in the day, so that an additional threat for tornadoes seems to develop.

Otherwise, organized severe threat seems to be rather low, though a few water spouts may occur with weakly electrified convection over the eastern Ionian Sea given simulated quite steep low-level lapse rates.