Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 02 Sep 2007 06:00 to Mon 03 Sep 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 01 Sep 2007 16:26
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Intense and strongly meandering upper westerly flow is stretching from the N Atlantic across Europe. Imbedded upper trough and attendant SFC low are expected to affect especially Scandinavia on Sunday. Weakening upper trough will reside over the Balkan States, and will eventually be picked up by the digging Scandinavian trough at the beginning of next week. Ahead of the Balkan trough, very steep mid-level lapse rates and a locally very moist boundary layer are present, resulting in ample CAPEs over the SE portions of the forecast area on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean region ... Black Sea ... east Balkan States ...

It appears that the air mass will remain moderately to very unstable with MLCAPEs partly well in excess of 2000 J/kg. Large-scale ascent will be provided by the upper trough over the Balkans, resulting in a favorable setup for intense convective development. However, mid-level flow appears to undergo a weakening trend, but with about 15 m/s at 500 hPa, it may still aid in thunderstorm organization. Thinking is that rather widespread thunderstorms will develop again along orographic features and outflow boundaries laid out by Saturday's convection, possibly rather early in the day. Though main mode may be severe multicell storms, a few supercells will likely also develop, main threats being (very) large hail and damaging wind gusts. One or more large MCSs may evolve in the evening hours again.