Forecast Update
Valid: Thu 23 Aug 2007 11:00 to Fri 24 Aug 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 23 Aug 2007 10:55
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to previous outlook text.

DISCUSSION

Latest models and water vapor images indicate that strong upper jet streak spreads northward further west. Additionally, latest surface observations show a low pressure over Czech Rep, leading to easterly winds in southeastern Germany/Poland. This will likely result in high SRH values of 100-300 J/kg in the lowest 3 km. Limiting factor is rather weak instability, given cool boundary layer. On the other hand, high low-level moisture and low LCL heights may be favorable for tornadoes.

Latest radar images now show a supercell that has developed over southeastern Germany. This cell will likely move north-eastwards into Poland. Given very strong (35 m/s) DLS and favorable veering profiles, this cell will likely remain quite persistent, capable of producing (very) large hail and high winds. There is also a chance for (strong) tornadoes given low LCL heights. Limiting factor is moderate LLS and SRH as well as limited low-level buoyancy ATTM due to cool boundary layer air mass.

For other regions, plesae refer to previous outlook.