Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 22 Aug 2007 16:00 to Thu 23 Aug 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Aug 2007 15:53
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to previous outlook.

DISCUSSION

Eastern Alps

Given rather weak low-level moisture, this region was excluded from the level 1. Although strong QG forcing is expected, and thunderstorms will likely develop in a region with strong DLS, chance for very large hail is limited due to weak instability and lack of steep mid-level lapse rates.

Central Mediterranean to Balkans and southern Poland

High low-level moisture is present in the mentioned region. At least over the southern portions, an impressive EML is expected during the next hours. CAPE is expected to reach several 100 J/kg in the northern and up to 2000 J/kg in the southern parts of the level 2. Most significant change is that strong upper jet streak will move further west than expected. Weaker QG forcing and vertical wind shear will be the consequence. However, at least isolated storms are expected to develop, capable of producing very large hail. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are not excluded. Best chance for MCS evolution is forecast over northern Italy/Balkans in the range of the frontal boundary.

For a detailed discussion, please refer to the previous outlook text.