Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 28 Jul 2007 06:00 to Sun 29 Jul 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 27 Jul 2007 23:25
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Strong and deep tropospheric baroclinic zone is stretching across the central parts of Europe ... with several imbedded upper short-wave troughs which are accompanied by SFC frontal waves at the S periphery of a large-scale SFC low centered over Scandinavia.

DISCUSSION

... Germany ... Poland ... Czech Republic ... Hungary ... Austria ... Slovakia ... Ukraine ...

First frontal wave is expected to cross the Benelux countries and Germany during the day, whereafter it is simulated to weaken as it moves into Poland. CAPE in the warm-sector air mass is expected to be quite weak but isolated thunderstorms may occur. Shear would be supportive of small/short-lived mesocyclonic storms, but currently instability signals are too weak to necessitate a categorical severe-weather forecast. An upgrade may be required if convection becomes more significant than currently anticipated. The threat probably extends southwards and eastward into Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Ukraine, but currently the CAPE fields are very weak and a categorical risk does not seem to be necessary, though an upgrade may be warranted on Saturday.

... British Isles ... Benelux countries ...

A subsequent wave will affect the S British Isles and Benelux countries late Saturday night. It seems that conditional instability will fail to develop, but the system should be monitored for a possible mid-level dry intrusion which could result in potential instability. Shear would be more than adequate for organized convection ... but little confidence in thunderstorm development precludes a categforical risk at the moment.

Otherwise ... it seems that chance of organized/severe convection is rather slim.