Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Jun 2007 06:00 to Fri 29 Jun 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Jun 2007 21:01
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Trough centered over Scandinavia/North Sea, and cool air mass has spread into most of Europe. Rests of warm air mass remain over Black Sea, eastern Ukraine, and southwestern Russia, where rather shallow cold front has become quasi-stationary. In the range of the frontal boundary, convective activity will weaken compared to WED due to rather weak forcing. Best potential exists from Black Sea to eastern Ukraine, where upper short-wave trough propagates northeastward. Given strong DLS, mulicells and supercells may develop, capable of producing isolated largew hail and severe wind gusts. Limiting factors are low-level cold air advection as well as rather dry low-level air mass. Further north, weak QG forcing will be present, and thunderstorms will be even more limited. However, a slight potential will also exist over western Russia.