Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 26 Jun 2007 15:00 to Wed 27 Jun 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 26 Jun 2007 15:56
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

See today's Forecast text.

DISCUSSION

An update seems to have become necessary due to more eastward displacement of organized convection east of the cold front, from Baltic states into Ukraine and Moldova.

Although areas with good dewpoints (>17
degrees) are sparse, decent instability should be present in the Ukrainian level 2 area, as well as SREH3 over 300 m2/s2 indicated by NMM 00Z model. Supercells may occur with large hail and severe gusts.

A probable squall line traverses Latvia and NE Belarus at the moment, as seen by a sharp line in VIS imagery. Widespread severe gusts may occur with this fast moving system.

Over Serbia into southwestern Romania, cells develop in an area of local dewpoint enhancements, while also upper cloudiness suggests dynamic lifting. A classic supercell was visible on Serbia's radar moving into Romania and poses a risk of (very) large hail, gusts and maybe a tornado. Upgrade to level 2 is probably not needed unless coverage by supercells would increase significantly.