Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 27 May 2007 09:00 to Mon 28 May 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 May 2007 08:53
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Sun 27 May 2007 00:25 !

DISCUSSION

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... Level-2 area, covering NE Germany, Denmark, S-Sweden and NW Poland...

An update became necessary to reflect some significant changes in latest model guidance.

Synop datas indicate that a broad low-level surface pressure system has formed over N-Germany, with somewhat lower pressure over NW Germany.
Latest high-resolution GFS datas indicate a possible second LL center, forming over NE Germany/ NW Poland although it is needless to discuss such processes in a weak gradient situation like this one.

This evolution could have major impact on the forecast as moisture advection towards the north will be significantly limited. In fact...latest run keeps highest instability over NW Poland with a significant decrease over NE Germany / Denmark and S-Sweden.
This new scenario also helps to establish a pretty diffuse LL wind field, like can be seen on latest surface charts and not a well defined cyclonic surface circulation with a broad, backing wind field.This would result in a significantly lower tornado threat.

However...00Z soundings over NE /E and SE Germany still show steep lapse rates and after a few more hours of (although limited ) diabatic heating convection should start to fire up.

Complex scenario and a seesaw of model guidance preclude to define a special area of enhanced severe weather potential and hence we will still go with broad level areas.
The main difference was a shortening of the level-2 area towards the north.