Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 15 Apr 2007 06:00 to Mon 16 Apr 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Apr 2007 16:34
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

High-over-low block persists over Europe, though the Mediterranean upper low will merge with a large SWD progressing upper low over SE Europe late in the forecast period. SFC conditions remain largely quiescent across most parts of Europe.

DISCUSSION

... France ...

It seems that some potential for isolated TSTMS persits across France, though GFS has a bad handle on the CAPE at the moment, and it appears that at best minimal CAPE will be available. However, lack of forcing for ascent and boundary-layer capping should limit allover thunderstorm threat. Will thus not introduce a thunderstorm area at this moment.

... south-central Mediterranean ...

Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue beneath the weakening Mediterranean upper low, but severe threat should be negligible given meager shear/thermodynamic fields.