Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 11 Apr 2007 06:00 to Thu 12 Apr 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Apr 2007 06:56
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Omega flow is present over Europe, with a high stretching from central Mediterranean to Alpine region and further to British Isles. Two lows are located W of Iberian Peninsula and Black Sea region/eastern Mediterranean. At lower levels, relatively warm air mass is present over most of western Europe. This air mass is slightly unstable underneath the trough axis from south-western France to Iberian Peninsula. Given weak vertical wind shear, organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

DISCUSSION

Western Mediterranean

Latest ascends show relatively steep lapse rates originating from the Atlas mountains present over northern Africa. Given relatively moist boundary layer over the Mediterranean Sea, weak instability shown by latest GFS is reasonable, although the boundary-layer remains quite cool. During the period, approaching SW-erly jet will lead to some QG forcing. However, cool boundary-layer will likely limit convective development. If thunderstorms will form, some organized convective cells are not ruled out given strong veering profiles, but current thinking is that surface-based convection will not develop.

Southern Turkey

Upper cut-off will reach the region late in the period. Given warm water surface, low-level air mass is expected to become quite unstable in the evening hours. Later, instability will likely become rather deep in the range of the upper trough. Given weak vertical wind shear and strong low-level buoyancy, expect that conditions for a few waterspouts are favorable, and a couple of events may occur along the southern coasts of Turkey during the evening/night hours.