Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 30 Mar 2007 08:00 to Sat 31 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 Mar 2007 07:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook, issued at Thu 29 Mar 2007 18:10!

DISCUSSION

The update became necessary because of some modifications of the thunderstorm area south / southeast of Greece.

A weak cold front from the NW will reach the area S of Greece between 21Z-00Z. Frontal structure is pretty diffuse, but arriving trough axis with adjacent compact UVV field and strong upper-level divergence will support the evolution of isolated to scattered thunderstorms along this slowly eastward moving boundary.

A pool of weak mid-level lapse rates just south of Greece will continue to translate towards the east, while steeper lapse rates will be present over the rest of the area, including Crete.
Strongest shear will stay just out of the area of responsibility towards the south but parameters for an isolated organized thunderstorm event over Crete during the latter part of my forecast period will come together.
Very strong DLS and marginal enhanced LL shear will create an environment, favorable for severe wind gusts / an isolated large hail / tornado threat.