Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 27 Mar 2007 06:00 to Wed 28 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 27 Mar 2007 02:26
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Blocking high pressure is situated over northeastern Europe while weak low surface pressure and mid level cold air centered over the Bay of Biscay, the coast of SE Spain, Italy and the eastern Mediterranean Sea cause a slightly unstable episode with isolated to scattered thunder. Within the weak flow, expectations for storms to yield severe weather are low, with cells being mostly short-lived.

Moderate deep layer shear is available around southern Italy and the Adriatic Sea (10-20 m/s 0-6 km), where storms can persist for most of the period over a stationary tongue of high theta-e and strong low level convergence. At most some low-end severe hail is forecast, or a waterspout, but the situation seems too marginal for a level 1 as the higher shear is not always co-located with instability according to GFS.