Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 25 Mar 2007 06:00 to Mon 26 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 24 Mar 2007 19:39
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

An high over low blocking pattern will persist for the next 24 hours over Europe with a strong high pressure area over Sweden and Finland and a channel of low geopotential heights over the Mediterranean.
Cold conditions will prevail for NE and E Europe .
Main convective acitivty can be expected around the Mediterranean.


DISCUSSION

....Mediterranean...

A few hundred J/kg SBCAPE will be available and a broad area will see thunderstorms.
The more difficult task will be to define the area with a more significant thunderstorm threat, which will be highlighted by the TSTM line.

A few more sentences for an area, stretching from Sicily towards the east / northeast.
Instability signals indicate the evolution of a more robust release of up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE.
During the evening hours, DLS will increase from the SW and will reach up to 20m/s.
Although the main storm activity can be found ahead of this enhanced DLS belt, a few storms can be expected to evolve in this environment.

Storms should not be able to organize and hence no severe weather threat can be expected.

South and east of S-Italy, strong instability signals, weak shear and steep lapse rates will pose a risk for a few waterspouts.
Although maximized in this area, the spout index and expected thermodynamic / kinematic environment indicate that an isolated waterspout report mainly in the highlighted area will be a possibility.

A few SFLOC reports will be possible outside of the highlighted areas, but should stay sporadic.