Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 16 Mar 2007 06:00 to Sat 17 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 15 Mar 2007 23:10
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

NWly mid-level flow off the northern Atlantic translates eastward. A large mid-level high is located over the Atlantic around 45 N. A remnant cyclonic circulation filled with relatiely low mid-level air is present over the western Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

S Scandinavia...

A northwesterly jet streak translates SEward off the Northern Atlantic into southern Scandinavia. A surface low in its left exit region is followed by relatively deep unstable polar air, in which deep convection is widespread. Some storms are likely thundery and affect southwestern Norway and adjacent waters mainly during the latter half of the forecast period.

W Mediterranean...

Strong insolation over the land masses of the Wrn Mediterranean is likely able to heat the lower troposphere sufficiently to overcome convective inhibition. Local thunderstorms are therefore forecast in the indicated areas. Low values of CAPE and weak wind shear suggest a very low threat of severe weather with these storms.