Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 15 Mar 2007 06:00 to Fri 16 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 15 Mar 2007 06:22
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

High over Atlantic ridges into Alpine region. At the northern flank of this high, polar trough evades into Scandinavia, where intense vort-max will affect especially the northern portions late in the period. Maritime air mass with neutral lapse rates are expected, and showers will likely develop. Given rather weak low-level moisture with dewpoints around 0°C, it seems that buoyancy will be too weak for strong convection and associated lightning. Best chances will exist along the western coast, where orographic lift may be strong enough for a few isolated thunderstorms, but current thinking is that thunderstorms will not occur. Vertical wind shear with 20 m/s DLS and also 10 m/s LLS will be present, but given weak CAPE, organized thunderstorms seem to be very unlikely.

South of the ridge axis, low geopotential is present over Mediterranean. However, latest soundings do not indicate instability due to rather warm/stable mid-levels and poor boundary-layer moisture. Best chances for instability will exist near the Balearic Islands, where at least shallow moisture has build as indicated by latest ascends. As latest model forecasts suggest that center of a weak cut-off low will move across the western Mediterranean, mid-level height falls may be strong enough for some instability to develop. However, weak forcing is forecast today, and chance for thunderstorms is low.