Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 14 Mar 2007 06:00 to Thu 15 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 13 Mar 2007 16:05
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

High over central northern Atlantic Ocean ridges into western and central Europe. At the northern flank of this ridge, moderately strong westerly jet forms a trough over north-eastern Europe that evades into eastern Europe during the period. Over south-eastern Europe, an upper cut-off low is located over central Turkey. At lower levels, relatively cold/dry air mass is present over most of Europe. Relatively warm air mass remains south of the ridge axis from Iberian Peninsula to northern Balkans. Both air masses are stable due to warm mid-levels in the range of the ridge. Best chances for convection is expected underneath the vort-max/trough axis of upper cut-off over Turkey. Given quite cold mid-troposphere and warm water surface temperatures over the Mediterranean Sea, expect that rather steep low-level lapse rates will develop. Downslope flow over the Turkish coast is forecast to limit chance for convection due to dry boundary-layer air mass. Further south, a few thunderstorms may form. But given weak CAPE and vertical wind shear, severe thunderstorms are not expected.