Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 Mar 2007 06:00 to Sat 10 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Mar 2007 20:26
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A huge and strongly tilted omega-like weather pattern will continue over the N-Atlantic and Europe .
Strengthening WAA downstream of the low pressure complex south of Greenland will support rising geopotential heights west of Europe with a strengthening anti-cyclone over the Azores.
The upper-level low pressure area over the S-CNTRL Mediterranean will continue to wobble slowly towards the east although numerous re-formation procedures of the LL depression center make it hard to define an exact track.


DISCUSSION

...S-CNTRL Mediterranean...

No significant changes will occur compared to yesterday. Cool mid-levels will support moderately steepened lapse rates and a broad area of up to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE ( especially offshore, where dewpoints are pretty high ).
Shear will stay pretty weak and only slightly enhanced over Sicily. Confidence in an enhanced severe weather threat is too low for warranting any higher probabilities.
Additionally, a tongue of extremely dry air will circulate towards the center of the depression, which should constrict thunderstorm activity for most of the forecast period SE of Sicily. Still highlighted such a broad area, because GFS inidcates that dry air will probably get mixed out and storms will be able to re-develop during the latter part of the forecast period.

...Parts of UK, Scotland and Ireland...

A pool of pretty cold mid-level air will support widespread low-end instability release in a weakly sheared environment.
LCLs stay low and SRH-1 values are slightly enhanced so an isolated tornado can't be ruled out especially long the coastal areas.

...An area between SE France and Corsica...

Rapidly cooling atmosphere between 00-06Z will support some low-end instability release.
Shear will stay too weak for any storm organisation.

A side note:
Conditions for a well developed Mistral event will evolve during the latter part of my forecast period ( about 21Z-06Z).
Gusts near hurricane force can be expected mainly offshore.
This event will also have an impact on final westward expansion of the general TSTM line west of Corsica.