Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 08 Mar 2007 21:00 to Fri 09 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Mar 2007 19:35
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A very intense and complex structured channel of low pressure stretches from west to east just south of Greenland with 3 distinct low pressure centers ( the dominant one just SE of Greenland with 960hPa ).
Downstream of this strong system, ridging will be present over most parts of western, central and eastern Europe.
A well defined and pretty strong system has finally evolved over parts of Tunisia and will be quite fixed during the next 9 hours.

Only as a side note: pretty strong cold front of this depression will race southwards over parts of N-Africa, reaching ~ 20N during the latter part of the forecast period !

DISCUSSION

....Central Mediterranean...

Steep lapse rates but weak shear will coin the environment around and south of Sicily. Main threat will be a flash flood threat especially over Sicily and E / NE-Tunisia.

Right now, storms develop south of Sicily and environmental conditions for further thunderstorm development will become even more favorable as strong jet will place most parts south of Sicily under increasingly favorable UL divergence .

....N- Ireland, Scotland...

Will start to mention the possibility for an isolated storm till 06Z, but more favorable conditions for more widespread thunderstorm development will evolve not until 06Z onwards.
No severe weather threat can be expected with those storms.