Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 26 Feb 2007 06:00 to Tue 27 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 25 Feb 2007 20:58
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC a highly amplified trough stretches from Denmark to Tunisia. The trough is filled with cold air at mid-levels and unstable stratification of the lower troposphere is the result. A shortwave trough initially west of Sardinia is expected to round the base of the aforementioned larger trough.

DISCUSSION

Mediterranean Sea...

Weak CAPE will likely form over the central Mediterranean region and quickly be released in local showers, some of which thundery. The highest coverage of storms is expected ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned above as it translates eastward. Slow height falls are expected over Albania and Greece, resulting in the development of a surface cyclone. Low-level winds will however likely remain rather weak so that low-level shear and the attendant threat of organized severe storms should be low.

Area NW of the Alps...

Weak instability is expected in this region that should have a very moist boundary layer. Weak, rather shallow instability is likely to result in a few showers of which some could be thundery.