Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 25 Feb 2007 06:00 to Mon 26 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 24 Feb 2007 19:33
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Strong vort max over W Europe will lift NEWD across central Europe with its southern portions ejecting into the W Mediterranean during the period, resulting in SFC cyclogenesis over the NW Mediterranean towards Sunday afternoon. E Europe remains dominated by continental polar air and an associated shallow/large SFC high.

DISCUSSION

... N France ... S Benelux ... NW Germany ...

Weak and comparatively shallow instability will likely exist along and ahead of the cold front accompanying the vort max which will cross Germany during the day, and it seems that scattered TSTMS will develop. SRH will be sufficient for mesocyclones, though minimal instability, only moderate large-scale upward forcing, and apparent small/lacking overlap of DLS/CAPE should limit severe threat. However, an isolated marginally severe hal/wind event cannot be excluded.

... NW Mediterranean ...

TSTMS should also develop in the warm sector of developing NW Mediterranean low in the evening and night hours. GFS suggests quite marginal instability as well as marginal shear and a categorical risk does not seem to be warranted at the moment.