Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 09 Feb 2007 18:00 to Sun 11 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 09 Feb 2007 17:49
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Thu 08 Feb 2007 21:27 !

DISCUSSION

...CNTRL Mediterranean...

The level-1 was canceled, because from now on the shear / instability will stay separated and no significant severe weather threat can be expected east of Tunisia.
DLS of about 15m/s could locally support gusts reaching the severe weather limit.

.. Costal areas of W-France...

There are no significant changes regarding the thinking of the quality of the postfrontal airmass, which will affect the area of interest during the latter part of my forecast period. I went more inland, because of stronger instability signals over SW France ( as a result of a marginal faster cold front arrival ). Kinematic parameters are still very favorable for an enhanced tornado and severe wind gust threat.

... Coastal areas of NW Portugal / Spain...

Decided to upgrade a small area to a level-1, because conditions will become more favorable for isolated thunderstorm development. Cold front will reach the area at about 23-00Z and mid-levels will also start to cool-down. Therefore a marginal instability release seems to be realistic.
DLS will be around 25m/s and should support a severe wind gust threat but also won't exclude an isolated tornado report along the coastal areas ( LL shear about 15m/s ).