Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 03 Feb 2007 06:00 to Sun 04 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 02 Feb 2007 17:46
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

An outstanding polar vortex is already underway over parts of Canada with impressive readings ( e.g. values of 479dam at yesterday's 06Z analysis and a developing very intense LL depression in the left exit region of a 240kt upper-level jet over extreme E-Canada ) but will not yet have any significant influence on the European weather.
A constantly eastward shifting high pressure area will support dry and tranquil weather over most parts of W-Europe, while a cool and stable airmass will influence the rest of CNTRL and E - Europe.

DISCUSSION

...S-Adriatic Sea and Ionian Sea...

SE-ward shifting pool of very cold mid-level air will support marginal instability release in the area of interest and a few storms will be able to form during the latter part of the forecast period.
Rapidly steepening lapse rates and decreasing background flow will be supportive for an isolated waterspout and marginal hail risk, but storm coverage will be too low for warranting any higher probabilities.

An isolated thunderstorm over the Czech Republic, E-Austria, Hungary and Slovakia can't be excluded , but coverage will be too low for highlighting any specific area.

...SW Mediterranean and the Strait of Gibraltar...

Marginal instability release under a weakening pool of low geopotential heights will be available and GFS also indicates somewhat enhanced DLS values, but expected thunderstorm threat won't be robust enough for higher probabilities.