Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 31 Jan 2007 06:00 to Thu 01 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 31 Jan 2007 06:30
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

At the eastern flank of weak Atlantic high, a north-westerly flow has formed over Europe. To the south, weak upper cut-off low moves slowly eastward over Iberian Peninsula today.

DISCUSSION

Baltic Sea region

A short-wave trough embedded in the north-westerly flow will move from western Scandinavia to eastern Poland during the period. Associated strong surface low will affect North and Baltic Sea region today. Along the cold front of this system, weak instability is expected by latest GFS model run. It is not ruled out that some shallow convection will develop along this cold front as quite strong QG forcing is expected at the cyclonic flank of strong upper jet streak associated with the short-wave trough. Given strong vertical wind shear and favorable veering winds, indicated by around 20 m/s LLS and 300 J/kg low-level SRH, is seems to be possible that a strongly-forced convective line will develop along the cold front. Strong to severe wind gusts are forecast to be the main threat. Along the leading gust front, a few tornadoes are not ruled out, too. Limiting factor will be rather cold air mass ahead of the cold front, as dewpoints over northern Germany are only about 3..6°C.

Balearic Islands

Underneath the upper cut-off low, expect increasing low-level lapse rates. Due to rather moist boundary-layer air mass with dewpoint of 8°C, relatively strong low-level buoyancy is forecast to develop. Showers and thunderstorms that form underneath the upper cut-off low will have a potential of producing water spouts especially near the coasts given weak vertical wind shear.