Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Jan 2007 06:00 to Tue 30 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 28 Jan 2007 18:36
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC, at mid-levels a high-over-low blocking pattern is present over the eastern North Atlantic with high pressure over Ireland. The low, west of Portugal, is filled with slightly unstable cool air. Downstream of a ridge extending from Ireland to Iceland, a strong northwesterly jet extends from the Norwegian Sea over Germany and the western Balkans to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

DISCUSSION

Balkans, Black Sea...

Embedded in the aformentioned jet, a shortwave trough is expected to extend from southern Poland to Switzerland. It is expected to arrive over the western Black Sea around 18:00 UTC. Strong forcing for upward motion ahead of the system may be able to destabilize the atmosphere over Yugoslavia sufficiently for a few thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. The forecast strong shear suggests that some potential for severe weather may develop, but currently the uncertainty is too big even for a level 1, mainly because the numerical models do not develop any significant instability. During the evening hours, another window for thunderstorms is expected to develop over the Black Sea.