Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 28 Jan 2007 06:00 to Mon 29 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 27 Jan 2007 19:39
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Intense synoptic-scale upper trough remains located over the eastern portions of Europe, with several short waves present along its periphery, which will affect W Turkey at the beginning of the period, and (E-) central Europe throughout the period. An upper cut-off low will reside off the Portugise Atlantic coast. At low levels ... intense SFC low will accompany peripheral vort max and cross S Scandinavia, the Baltic States, and Poland during the day, moving into the E Ukraine late in the period. High pressure perists across WRN Europe.

DISCUSSION

... SW Turkey ... E Mediterranean ...

Scattered TSTMS may occur over the SE Aegean and SW Turkey and spread EWD during in the period ahead of vigorous DCVA regime, in weakly unstable subtropical air mass. Saturday's 12Z ascents from E Turkey and Crete reveal what appears to be an EML, suggesting that a couple of 100 J/kg of CAPE may be in place if sufficient LL moisture accumulates beneath the cap. The GFS does not support this scenario, simulating only quite shallow CAPE in the pre-frontal air mass. If storms form however, shear profiles will be more than adequate for severe evolution, including mesocyclones with an attendant wind, hail, and tornado threat, and a level one risk appears to be marginally warranted.

... SW Iberia ...

GFS places the unstable air mass just offshore over the Atlantic and the SW Mediterranean, while shear will be maximized over the peninsula. However, a small spatio-temporal intersection of favorable instability and shear regions could maintain some severe threat, including tornadoes given strong LL shear and minimal capping.

... E Europe ...

Deeply mixed and rather dry/cool polar air will affect the eastern parts of Europe on Sunday. Though an isolated CG or two cannot be ruled out ... profiles seem to be too cold to support widespread lightning with the convection. Will thus not issue a TSTM forecast for this area. The Black Sea is included as warm sea waters are expected to increase strength of convection and increase the BL temperatures.

... N Germany ...

Towards early Monday morning, polar-air convection should spread into N Germany ahead of an upper vort max. Indications are that this activity will be quite shallow (EL's below 700 hPa level), and lightning is rather unlikely. Quite strong shear will be in place, however, but shallow nature of convection should limit any severe convective weather threat.