Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 26 Jan 2007 06:00 to Sat 27 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Jan 2007 22:26
Forecaster: DAHL
SYNOPSIS
Positively tilted synoptic-scale upper trough is covering Europe, providing the Mediterranean regions and SE Europe with ample mid/upper level flow. This feature is expected to close off into a cut-off low over S Spain/Gibraltar/N Morocco on Friday. Large SFC high pressure area exists over the western half of Europe W of the upper trough, advecting polar air into the Mediterranean and SE Europe. Main, quasi-stationary low-level frontal boundary will stretch from the SW Mediterranean across the S Balkans and the Black Sea into W Russia.
DISCUSSION
... Sicily ... Ionian Sea ... N Greece ... N Aegean Sea ...
Comparatively shallow convection will likely persist along and S of the main frontal boundary over the Ionian and Aegean regions. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer should be on the order of 25 to 30 m/s, with 0-3 km SRH in the 200 to 300 mē/sē range. GFS suggests rather modest precip during the bulk of the period, which may be indicative of a rather low coverage. Nonetheless, chance of a few severe TSTM events exists, including the chance of tornadoes.
... W Mediterranean ... Adriatic Sea ...
In the polar air N of the front, cellular convection is expected. Shear profiles should be rather weak, but very steep LL lapse rates may favor strong outflow winds. Waterspout threat should be limited however, given high LCL heights.
... W Norway ... North Sea ...
Very sporadic lightning may occur in strong upslope flow regime over the W Norwegian Mountains, as well as over the North Sea with shallow polar-air convection. TSTM coverage should remain too low for a TSTM area, however.
