Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 24 Jan 2007 09:00 to Thu 25 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 24 Jan 2007 08:48
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Amplified trough present over Europe. Around its intense southern base, a strong upper jet streak over central Mediterranean spreads north-eastward into southern Balkans and eastern Ukraine today. In the range of the eastern part of the trough's base, air mass over Mediterranean has become quite unstable due to moist boundary-layer and steep low- and mid-level lapse rates. This air mass is advected into south-eastern Europe east of the surface low, while cold, dry, and stable air mass spreads into western Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

Northern Balkans

Focus of expected organized convection is the region south-east of the main frontal boundary/surface trough. While the surface cold front moves eastward rather quickly, and latest model output does not show significant instability in the warm air mass, well-mixed and unstable air mass originating from the central Mediterranean spreads north-eastward into northern Balkans. At the cyclonic flank of the upper jet streak QG forcing is expected and showers and thunderstorms that have formed over Adriatic may spread north-eastward reaching southern Hungary/western Romania in the evening hours. Given increasing DLS underneath the jet streak, convection will likely organize. However, there are some limiting factors. In the wake of a deepening low that moves north-eastward into southern Poland, weakening LLS and forcing is expected. As a consequence, we do not expect widespread organized convection today. Severe wind gusts will be the most significant thread, but a tornado is not ruled out given locally favorable boundary-layer buoyancy and low-level SRH values.