Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 22 Jan 2007 06:00 to Tue 23 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 21 Jan 2007 23:34
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC... a broad mid/upper trough extending from central scandinavia to the Atlantic south of the British Isles moves southeastward. A cut-off low should develop over NE Spain at the end of the period. Surface cyclogenesis is expected over N Spain Monday afternoon, while a surface high pressure area strengthens over the Altantic around 25 W.
DISCUSSION

Western European waters and coastal areas...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in a polar air-mass that works its way southward over the warm waters of the Eastern North Atlantic, the Irish Sea, the Channel and the Bay of Biscay. A surface trough moving southward across the North Sea is forecast to reach the coastal areas of the Benelux, northern Germany and W Denmark early Tuseday and may produce some thunderstorms too.

Northern Mediterranean region...

Upward vertical motion ahead of the aforementioned trough is expected to destabilize the troposphere over the area during the period. It is likely that this will result in thunderstorms in several places, mainly during the evening and night. Severe threat is likely low as instability will be weak while shear and forcing are relatively modest too.