Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 16 Jan 2007 06:00 to Wed 17 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 15 Jan 2007 23:40
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure over northern Scandinavia and high pressure over the southern half of Europe render most of the map free of deep convection.

Only a shortwave trough around the low affects the Norwegian coast, and another low pressure system will enter the northern British Isles late in the period, with postfrontal convection likely but not quite deep enough for thunder. In both cases the shear enhancement comes from friction over land, in winds otherwise not much increasing or veering with height, while the CAPE source comes from the sea surface. Would consider this situation too marginal to issue a threat level 1 for some tornadic threat.

No thunder area was drawn for Portugal or the northwestern Mediterranean Sea despite signals from GFS that convection may occur, but it would likely remain too shallow for any lightning. These areas are in poor shear conditions anyway.