Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 09 Jan 2007 13:00 to Wed 10 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 09 Jan 2007 13:54
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

Area over southern Ireland and southwestern UK added due to enhanced risk of isolated tornadic activity: Valencia 00Z-12Z soundings have indicated a considerably unstable setup, even under the stratiform clouds visible in satellite images. Quite strong LL shear and DL shear are in place, though without much veering near the surface, indicative of cold air advection. The occlusion point of the frontal wave (with a double structure) may become a favoured position for a tornadic cell, where lift and more backed winds come together. This is progged (GFS) to move over Ireland around 21Z and UK... double theta-e structure merges towards the morning with main occlusion running through mid-UK but forecast instability staying within drawn area.