Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 08 Jan 2007 06:00 to Tue 09 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 07 Jan 2007 19:54
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC... a divergent westerly large-scale mid-level flow is present over Europe. A trough from the northern North Sea to southern France will move eastward and is followed by a warm front. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward just north of Scotland during the second half of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Northern Scotland...

In the range of the left exit region of the mid-level jet, some low-level destabilization is expected as a result of rapid upward vertical motion of sub-saturated air. The resulting weak latent instability and strong low-level shear, will create an environment that may support a few rotating storms. Confidence that sufficient instability will form is however rather low given that only limited moisture should be present. I will therefore refrain form issuing a level 1.