Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 04 Jan 2007 06:00 to Fri 05 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 03 Jan 2007 22:17
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Polar jet stream forms rather sharp and amplified troughs/ridges over Europe. A trough is expected from Scandinavia to northern Mediterranean, while another, amplified trough is present from western Russia to western Turkey. The latter is filled with quite unstable air mass over the warm sea surface of southern Aegean. Latest soundings indicate rather deep layer steep lapse rates and almost no CIN over southern and eastern Mediterranean. In the range of the trough axis, weak vertical wind shear is forecast, and given high potential for showers and thunderstorms, chance for waterspouts is forecast is expected to be rather high. Best potential seems to exist near the coasts of Crete initially, while it will move north-eastward into western/southern Turkish coast during the day. Limiting factor will be quite strong low-level winds in the range of cold air advection west of deepening surface low. A couple of events is expected to occur, though.