Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 03 Jan 2007 06:00 to Thu 04 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 03 Jan 2007 05:42
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Amplified strong trough is present over eastern and south-eastern Europe. To the west, polar jet forms a wave that moves into Europe. Associated ridge axis is expected over northern Balkans late in the period. Following trough will affect British Isles and North Sea region. At lower levels, cold air mass spreads into central and southern Mediterranean behind a cold front crossing western Turkey today. This cold air mass is characterized by quite steep lapse rates over the warm sea, but inversions and rather dry low-level air mass limit potential of convection. Best chances are expected underneath the trough center over southern Mediterranean, where low-level air mass has become quite moist over the warm sea. Weak DLS and steep low-level lapse rates are expected to pose a threat of water spouts during the day in the range of showers and thunderstorms, but given rather dry low level air mass, chance seems to be not too high, and a level 1 is not warranted. To the east, strongly forced convection is forecast along the cold front that moves into western Turkey, but storms should be mostly elevated due to a cool PBL. Each storm over Turkey would have a large hail risk given strong DLS in the range of the upper jet, but confidence in any significant storm coverage that far inland is too low for a level 1.