Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 27 Dec 2006 09:00 to Thu 28 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Dec 2006 08:57
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Amplified ridge present over Europe, while polar jet stream forms an intense trough over western Russia and Turkey. Mostly stable air masses are present in the range of both systems. Shallow instability is expected over the Black Sea, but thunderstorms seem to be not likely due to mid-level inversions and weak forcing. Another region of instable air mass is forecast over western Mediterranean, where low geopotential embedded in the ridge is present. In the range of this weak cut-off low, relatively steep lapse rates and adequate low-level moisture are present, and a few showers and thunderstorms are not ruled out. Weak instability and forcing are expected, and chance for thunderstorms is low. Another focus of convection may be another short-wave trough moving north-eastward at the western flank of European ridge. Rather strong forcing and neutral lapse rates are expected in the range of this trough, and showers and a few thunderstorms are possible. However, latest satellite image does not show convective activity, and latest models do not expect that convective activity will spread into British Isles.