Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 24 Dec 2006 06:00 to Mon 25 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 23 Dec 2006 16:18
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

High-over-low block persists across Europe, with the upper low being located over the western Mediteranean, making slow eastward progress on Sunday, while it is expected to undergo some weakening. Extensive SFC high is covering much of central and western Europe. A strong and large-scale SFC low is affecting the northeastern portions of the forecast area. Weak low-pressure area expected to continue weakening is accompanying the Mediterranean upper low.

DISCUSSION

... southwest and south-central Mediterranean ...

Weakly capped and weakly unstable air mass should persist amidst plume of warm/moist air wrapping around the southwest/-central Mediterranean low. Deep instability and 15 m/s deep shear are expected to be uncorrelated spatially over the SW Mediterranean per GFS 06Z. However, the mesoscale distribution of the depth of CAPE tends not to be too reliably simulated, and chance of deep storms in the favorably sheared area certainly exists. Main threats should be marginally severe outflow winds, though minimal capping and almost saturated maritime boundary layers is also indicative of a threat for a few tornadoes, especially near the Algerian/Tunesian coast where rather strong low-level shear should be present.