Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 20 Dec 2006 06:00 to Thu 21 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 20 Dec 2006 05:31
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Rather strong high centered over British Isles. To the east, long-wave trough covers Europe. Low geopotential is also present over Mediterranean, and cut-off low over Iberian Peninsula remains during the period. While stable air mass dominates over most of Europe, slightly unstable air mass is present in the range of the Mediterranean Sea. Weak vertical wind shear is forecast over most places, and severe thunderstorms are not expected.

DISCUSSION

Western Mediterranean Sea

In the range of the cut-off low, another convective day is expected. Latest soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates above the warm water surface as well as rather rich low-level moisture, yielding some low-level bouyancy. Instable air mass is restricted to the lowest 100s hPa. For that reason, increasing deep layer wind shear at the southern flank of the cut of is not expected to have an influence on storm organization, and severe thunderstorms seem to be not likely.