Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Dec 2006 06:00 to Sun 17 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 15 Dec 2006 19:39
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

The disturbed weather pattern continues for most parts of Europe. A pool of low geopotential heights stretches all the way down to the central Mediterranean ( merging with a weakening upper-level low over N-Africa ).
Cool mid-levels and still pretty high SSTs will support a broad area with scattered thunderstorm development over the W-CNTRL Mediterranean. Shear will be too weak for any significant severe weather threat.
Another upper-level trough just west of Sweden is forecast to slowly shift SE-ward during the forecast period. Very cold mid-levels will be fine for low-end instability release and hence isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected. Shear will be too weak for storms to organize.
SE Europe will experience warm and dry conditions and a more winter-like environment can be found over parts of NW Russia.

Only as a side note:

An upper-level low just S/ SW of the Azores showed a continuous increase in convection mainly in the N / E quadrant during the 13-18Z time frame ( 15th Dec.).
Although window for further development is not excessively long, the system could acquire a warm core structure as indicated by UKMET / GFS model runs . Thermodynamic and kinematic environments combined with 18-20°C SSTs favor the development of a subtropical system during the next 2-3 days.