Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 Dec 2006 06:00 to Tue 12 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Dec 2006 14:50
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

A trough extending from a cold-core mid/upper low over the western Ukriane to the western Mediterranean moves SEward.
A front/jet system over Scandinavia, the North Sea and the British Isles is followed by a slightly unstable polar maritime air-mass.

DISCUSSION

Mediterranean Region...

The aformentioned should intially extend roughly from Slovakia to Ibiza. As it moves southeastward, it induces lifting of an air-mass that should locally develop some latent instability. Some scatterred thunderstorms are possible in much of the western and central Mediterranean in addition to stratiform rain preceding the rough as it moves over the Tyrrhenean Sea, Italy, the Ionean Sea and later Greece and the Aegean Sea. Low shear and low CAPE indicate that the risk of severe weather will be very low.

Northwestern Europe...

Following the frontal system, a shortwave trough just west of Scotland at 06 UTC is expected to move eastward. It should cross the North Sea during the early afternoon, providing focus for widespread rather deep, locally thundery, convection. Elsewhere more sporadic lightning is possible as well. Given the strong environmental wind field, severe gusts are likely in places, but as convection will likely not have a very organized character we refrain from issuing a risk level.