Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 08 Dec 2006 10:00 to Sat 09 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 08 Dec 2006 09:42
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective outlook from Thursday, 7 Dec. 2006.

DISCUSSION

... N France ... Benelux ... extreme W Germany ...

Intense SFC low and its trailing cold front are moving from N France across the Benelux States and N Germany into southern Scandinavia during the day. TSTMS have developed along this front, apparently tied to an upper dry intrusion. The development and the positioning of this feature relative to the SFC front can hardly be predicted but it seems that the convective threat will persist at least through the next few hours. However, BOLAM suggests a rapid decrease of pre-frontal low-level theta-e, which may be indicative of a reduction of the TSTM potential. In fact, SFLOC data suggest that convective activity is decreasing already. However, shear is more than sufficient for severe storms, mainly capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes, and since at least small threat for convective development persists, an upgrade to level one is necessary.

... other areas ...

Refer to convective outlook from Thursday, 7 Dec. 2006.